How the Cow jumped over the moon: a fable on futures and perceived valuation

(this is from a forwarded email - something i think worth sharing)
One day Farmer Abner took his Appaloosa (a fine breed of horse and so are Belgian and Clydesdale) to the livestock market. There he met Farmer Bill with his Belgian and Farmer Clem with his Clydesdale. "What do you reckon they're worth?" each one asked the others. "The value of a thing is what the thing will bring," they agreed.
Abner offered his horse for sale first. The auction opened at $100, but to Abner's surprise and great joy, Bill and Clem entered into a spirited bidding competition for the Appaloosa, finally won by Bill. Abner pocketed $500,less the auctioneer's fee.
Next, Bill put his Belgian up for sale. Abner, who was now without a horse of his own, bid fiercely against Clem, but eventually quit at $500. Bill accepted the money gleefully minus the commission, of course.
Finally, Clem's Clydesdale went on the block. This time Abner outbid Bill and took delivery of the Clydesdale for the same price as the others, $500.
The Cow-Bones index, the dosimeter of the livestock market, was at 500.
That meant that the equity value of their holdings was $500. Since they had done so well, all three went back to the market again the next day, eager to see if they could pick up some bargains or unload their new purchases at a profit. The auctioneer started the bidding at $500. Bill and Clem bid desperately against one another for Abner's Clydesdale; once again, Bill won, but this time at the mind-boggling price of $3000. Then Bill put the Appaloosa up for sale. Abner and Clem bid equally fiercely before the latter triumphed; he too had to go to $3000 to secure his victory. In order to cover the loan he took out to raise the purchase price, he decided to sell his other horse. The bidding between Abner and Bill shot up to the $3000 level before Bill dropped out, leaving the Belgian in Abner's hands. Of course, the auctioneer again deducted his fees, but Abner, Bill, and Clem were overjoyed at their success. They were twenty times wealthier than when they started, at least on paper.
And the Cow stood at 3000.
On the third day, optimistic that the market would continue to rise, the three farmers (though they now thought of themselves as investors who farmed as a hobby) again entered the fray. The bidding was insane; pundits who followed the market had never seen anything like it. When the dust settled, Abner had repurchased the Appaloosa, Bill the Belgian, and Clem the Clydesdale--in each case for the unheard-of, astounding price of $14,000! None of them could believe his luck. Each went around saying, "It's a dream, I never believed that wealth on this scale could be mine." The auctioneer was very satisfied too.
And the Cow jumped over the moon. It ended the day at 14,000.

Moral: The Market will decide.

Epilog:
The next day the market was closed, so Abner, Bill, and Clem went back to their farms, leading their horses on halters rather than riding. "You don't want to take chances with a 14,000-dollar investment," they said.
On the way they met Farmer Zeke, who was riding a bicycle. They told him of their new wealth, understandably proud of the acumen that had earned it, and they bragged a little. "Have you ever before in your life seen a horse worth $14,000?" they asked Zeke.

"Fourteen thousand? Why, I wouldn't give you a hundred dollars for those plugs," exclaimed Zeke. "If they were good for anything at all you wouldn't be walking."

Penguins, Pelicans and Vikings

It would have been a lazy siesta at my balcony on a Sunday afternoon if not for reading a Malcolm Gladwell that I picked up at the annual Strand book festival (SBF) this morning, The day suddenly seems to have brightened and the soul feels refreshed after the visit to the book festival, especially when yesterday was a working day to compensate for the lost day last week due to the Bandh.My thoughts go back to the mid nineties when i lived in Bombay. It was almost a pilgrimage i made to either Bajaj Bhavan at Nariman Point or the Sunderbai Hall just outside of Churchgate to be greeted by a thick,fresh but familiar smell of the paperbacks that beckoned an impulsive splurge on books at the Strand Festival. Luckily years later, but absolutely with the same zest, The Stand book festival has kicked off to popular reception at Bangalore (Thanks Ms Vidya Virkar). Strand Book Shop was always known to offer great discounts on books. A couple of things other than the fat discount that has left me amazed is the horizontal arrangement of books for display - So one doesn’t have to strain his neck to read the title from the spine of the book. It is hard to find books of your choice in the SBF since the collection is huge and eclectic with a wide range of fiction, classics, children, business and self-help books. My recommendation is to go there with an open mind and a flexible budget to do justice to the numerous titles that are available and not to mention the coffee table books (if you are into it- I simply love them and two favorites i could remember were the Reader's Digest's book on the US interstate highways and another one to commemorate the Everest expedition complete with breathtaking photographs). They stock from every major publishing house – McGraw Hill, Penguin, Pelican, Bantam, Viking, Sterling, Allen Lane. Rupa, Harper Collins..You name it and they have it


My inclination to buy non-fiction has been the simple fact that I think learnings from these books can lend much to life, career and aid general thought and daily conversation. Which is why books like Adventure Capitalist, Tipping Point, Freakonomics, The World is Flat, and Outliers are such absolute must haves on your bookshelf. I cannot imagine discussing The Kite Runner or The White Tiger or Chetan Bhagat for more than 10 minutes! I can rave about them, listen to someone talking about it and nod, but that's pretty much about it.

Coming back to Strand, Today, on a Sunday morning, I was disappointed to see very few youngsters at the Festival. Most of the visitors were in the age group of 35+ and that included a lot of people in the 45+ range. My fears of kids not reading enough and parents not insisting that they do is now almost confirmed. I have always bought books for myself and to gift to close friends and colleagues at work and as for me, I am eternally thankful to TN Shanbhag & his team for introducing me to the likes of Dave Barry, Jim Rogers,Rohington Mistry,Nicolas Taleb,William Dalrymple, Ruskin Bond (for the second time) and many others.. and Aesop fables,Charles Dickens and Andersen Tales to my daughter in an age when most of her peers are reading and listening to Barbie princess. I am now as eclectic as the collection in their store and look forward to enjoying the company of a dozen books that i have chosen to read in the next few weeks – each one with a cup of freshly brewed filter coffee in hand and the lovely July weather to savor.

...till then...happy reading

A new champion

Whenever a 700 million people sit glued to their TV screens for 120 minutes, it might well be an important event. Over the past month TV audiences have been following the FIFA world cup football more keenly that the stock market with every anticipatory belief that a new team would finally kiss the trophy and eventually it happened so with the pre-tournament favorites Spain beating the 3 time finalists Holland. For the Dutch though, this was another missed opportunity to get to the platinum league, but then they were truly the worthy opponents the Spaniards would cherish for making this world cup finals so special. Finally 9 Yellow cards later and by Paul's grace (Paul the prophesying octopus who shot to predictive glory picking the winners right all the time thus becoming a business enabler. The blokes at Ladbrokes and other betting houses must next be strategizing as to how to get Paul work for them) The Spanish Armada, meanwhile sets sail back home with the booty leaving most of us like me bleary eyed but amazed at this game and the pompous occasion the past month was...Truly the game was a winner and as Shakira croons, Waka Waka- This time for Africa, hosting the most important sporting event on the planet must have done plenty good for the wonderful people and the nations associated. When bidding ended in 2004 and South Africa was chosen over Egypt and Morocco, few had thought that South Africa would be such gracious hosts, providing world class infrastructure to complement the high expectations and global attention this event attracts and deserves. The best part about the FIFA world cup is not about winning the cup itself but the milestones that each football playing nation aims at. For some teams, a qualification into the elite league of 32 is a feat that signifies achievement and for some it is more than that. Celebrations, Joy, glory, pain, disappointment and outpour of emotions is probably what makes this game and event such great glue that humanity thrives on (at least in a large part of the world). There are nations that take victory and defeat beyond the fringes of rational justification. Brazil is known to declare a holiday when the team wins or a day of mourning when they don't. The Nigerian team's suspension followed by hasty revoking of the same due to public outcry and FIFA's intervention are examples of sheer passion that people have for this great game.


Spain with their brand of 'beautiful football can be winning football' lay their hands on Football's holy Grail and crown themselves as the new champion in a final that was, for the first time different from the past 80 years where one of the big four (Italy, Brazil, Germany or Argentina) were not a part of the grand finale. While, I know I will struggle hard this morning focusing on work with a 2 hour sleep, the excitement of seeing a new champion and the euphoria around the world should keep me going.

And for the Dutch, The two F-16 jets one of them painted ‘Oranje’ for the occasion escort their plane home for a tumultuous welcome - What a victory for the game, the nation, the continent and importantly the victory of the human spirit. Viva Football!

Sorry Maradona and Happy Birthday America

As i write this blog, I am a bit dejected at the German drubbing of the Argentine team in the 2010 FIFA world cup and kind of feel sorry for Diego Maradona whose passion and sideline antics, if not anything else should have put Argentina in the finals. As i wait to see the fate of Spain who seem equally determined to strike out another latino team off contention. I am surfing for some cheerful news as thoughts about America celebrating the 234th independence in a few hours is on the mental radar. I am reading Trent Hamm's tweets on twitter while another stream that i follow - Fortune magazine's 100 great things about America catches my attention. You can actually  read it on the fortune website..but thought will compile the entire list of 100 great things about America (not that i agree with the compilation completely), but atleast hilarious enough to keep me up through the next 60 minutes while i wait for the atomosphere at Ellis Park Stadium, Jo'berg to charge and for the kick-off whistle...

Till then...enjoy the list and Happy Independence Day and Happy Birthday, America!

1776 -2010... a fantastic journey...

Fortune's 100 Great things about America

1. The Internet -Oh yes, invented in the USA -- maybe Al Gore helped.

2. The Constitution and the Bill of Rights

3. Baseball -America's pastime…steroids or not

4. Mount Rushmore - Home of the original "your face here" gimmick

5. Food in New Orleans - If you can remember it the next morning

6. Rock and roll - Find a Beatles or Stones song uninfluenced by American music. Just try.

7. Hawaii - Mauna Kea, Kaua'i…you gotta see it to believe it.

8. iPod, iPad, and everything Apple

9. Barbecue - Carolina, Mississippi, K.C., Memphis…it's all good.

10. Ford Mustang - Who needs a German car? We'll take the classic.

11. Wikipedia - This article that mentions a popular fact site is a stub. You can help us by expanding it.

12. Buffalo - Because this is a real sentence: Buffalo buffalo Buffalo buffalo buffalo buffalo Buffalo buffalo. Don't believe us? Check on #11.

13. Slam dunks - Thanks to Doctor J

14. Broadway - If the Lion King ever closes, Cats will come back.

15. Bluebirds - Listen to mine sing

16. Google - Because no one stands up to China better

17. Mark Twain - The original American bad-ass

18. The national anthem

19. Iced drinks - When will the rest of the world figure this out?

20. Beaches - Cape Cod, Kiawah, Zuma -- ours are better.

21. Madison Square Garden - A little threadbare but still the biggest stage in America's biggest city

22. Delivery pizza

23. The Grateful Dead - Long may the followers of Uncle John's Band live on.

24. YouTube - We keep clicking on home videos even after Charlie bit our finger -- again!

25. The Super Bowl - The parties, the ads -- oh and a sports game, too

26. Fishing - China rules the commercial catch, but more people fish for fun here than anywhere else.

27. Monopoly - game we sometimes play in real life, too.

28. The Big Apple Circus - Where joy and, occasionally, fear comes in clown twelve-packs by tiny car

29. M&M's - Imitators don't stand a chance

30. Facebook - Friend us? Just kidding… but seriously. Please friend us.

31. Thanksgiving - Loosen your belt and watch the parade

32. Pickup trucks - Our nation's first outlet for unfunny bumper stickers

33. The Simpsons - May Bart and Lisa never make it to high school.

34. Oprah Winfrey - But after 2011, no more free cars for the audience

35. Frisbees - Not just for dogs

36. Mad Men - Jon Hamm + Christina Hendricks = cooler than the actual '60s

37. New York/Boston sports rivalry - For our safety, we decline to comment.

38. MRI machine - Perfect for after that Yanks-Sox game

39. Patagonia - The first to make polyester clothes out of old plastic bottles

40. Archie Comics - Betty or Veronica: 68 years and the debate rages on

41. The Golden Gate Bridge - Dirty Harry meets Full House. Uh oh.

42. Jazz - Even before Ken Burns discovered it

43. Fantasy football

44. S'mores

45. Trader Joe's - If cheap wine were apples, we present the modern Johnny Appleseed. Amen.

46. The 4th of July

47. Harley Davidson - The motorcycle company that has survived both the Great Depression and the Hybrid Obsession

48. March Madness - So crazy it spills into April

49. Scrabble - As Facebook proved, it's Scrabulous

50. Kegs - Even useful when empty, as moorings

51. Slip 'N Slide - Simple. Genius.

52. Ice cream - Ben and Jerry's, Breyers, soft serve… ours freezes the competition

53. Yellowstone National Park

54. Oreos - This choice bribed by the secret dairy farmers' cartel

55. Edward R. Murrow - A journalist who was cool? Sigh.

56. Restaurant week - The one week a year when snooty waiters have to play nice

57. Washington D.C. monuments at night - Lincoln looks good

58. Bugs Bunny - Every parent's dream: he's nice to doctors and he eats his veggies

59. Etch A Sketch - Don't shake away our faith in this one

60. Coca-cola - Hmmm… what does the "coca" stand for again?

61. Flip flops - Not the John Kerry kind, though both can be found on Nantucket

62. Vegas weddings

63. Napa wine - If anyone orders Merlot, we're leaving

64. Willie Nelson - Trigger

65. eBay - The only place where you can buy a single cornflake

66. Blueberries - Our favorite fruit that can't check email

67. The Rockettes - E-leg-trifying!

68. Charles Barkley - Hosting Saturday Night Live and pitching for T-Mobile, Sir Charles is now larger than life

69. Blue jeans - Levi Strauss invented the modern version only to see them become boringly ubiquitous

70. County fairs - We recommend you eat your corndog after swinging that sledgehammer at the High Striker game

71. The Oscars - A celebration of everything good and awful about Hollywood

72. Veterans - Thank you

73. Steakhouses - Thankfully, not rare

74. The Tiffany box - The only package more powerful than its contents

75. Sports mascots - The San Diego Chicken vs. the Phillie Phanatic

76. The Great Lakes

77. Salt water taffy - Delicious even though they contain neither salt nor water

78. Roller coasters - Possibly the only 30-second activity worth a three-hour wait

79. HBO - Even if we're unsold on the vampire craze

80. The Everglades - Where else would you go to get drunk and wrestle an alligator?

81. Bonnie and Clyde - Do you and your honey bunny rob banks? No? Then sit down.

82. Chewing gum - But please, remember that it's a silent activity

83. The light bulb - And we just keep inventing better ones!

84. Religious freedom - From Pilgrims to scientologists

85. Bagels - If you've never tried one, come to New York and make your first one an H&H

86. Judd Apatow films

87. The Billboard 100 - Measuring our music since 1958

88. Chipotle - And the guacamole really is worth the extra $2.25

89. Dalmatians on fire trucks - Black and white and red all over

90. Disney movies - Not yours, Nicholas Cage. The old school, animated ones

91. New Year's Eve - Every country has one, but they all watch Times Square

92. Elvis Presley - A hound-dog and the King

93. Cowboys

94. Turducken - A true American delicacy: a chicken in a duck in a turkey

95. Netflix - The only movie rental survivor

96. Spring Break - We plead the Fifth

97. Escalators - First used commercially in Yonkers, NY in 1899—who knew?

98. Stand-up comedy - Unless you are singled out

99. Redwood trees -The oldest is 2,200 years old

100. Bendy straws - Invented by a Cleveland entrepreneur—and perhaps Ohio's most significant contribution, though we tip our hats to the Wright Brothers and its 8 U.S. Presidents

101. Charlie Brown - Sorry, Charlie, maybe next time you'll crack the top 100


......And, can David Villa bring some cheer to me?